A Fed olajat és részvény ETF-eket vásárol közpénzből tőkeáttétellel

Nem, nem ment az agyamra a karantén. Nordeát olvasok, néha vad, amit írnak, de évek óta követve őket, sokszor bejön. Van, hogy 8-10 hónapra is előrébb járnak, mint a mainstream. Nagyon jó a flow és likviditás alapú megközelítésük is.

Már hónapok óta magyarázzák, hogy nagy baj lesz az olajpiacon és ilyen ábrákat közölnek.

The announced cut of 9.7m barrels a day from OPEC+ earlier this month has failed to stabilise the oil market, since the oversupply is still maybe 15-20m barrels a day. Trump has now allegedly instructed the Secretary of Energy and Secretary of the Treasury to formulate a plan which will make funds available for shale companies (read a bailout), which is a perfectly understandable move from a geopolitical standpoint but also an indirect de facto invitation to OPEC (+Russia) to not cut supply further. Why should Saudis and Russians agree to cut production substantially (of oil with a much lower marginal cost), if the US is not willing to let insolvent shale companies shut down? OPEC+++ is a tricky forum to agree in.

If we don our tinfoil hats (as we sometimes like to) it may even be that Saudi Arabia and Russia intentionally tried to kill US shale production with their “dispute”. With Trump now openly backing the shale sector, Saudi Arabia and Russia will have to prolong or even increase the price race to the bottom if they mean business. We are in other words yet to be convinced of an upcoming trough in the oil price.

Persze van, amit felkapnak az ötleteikből, akkor beválik (SOMA napok devizahatása), a fél piac ráugrik és persze már nem működik. Máskor meg egyszerűen nem működik, de szerintem jó a találati arányuk.

Egy friss Fed-előzetes és egy másik az olajról és a jövő hét dilemmáiról néhány kedvcsináló grafikonnal:

The Fed has already tapered its Treasury and Agency MBS purchases significantly. Since the open-ended QE began the daily purchases are down from $75 bn to $15 bn and from $50 bn to ~$10 bn, respectively. We expect the tapering to continue, but the daily purchases will remain at historical elevated levels until at least 1 June. At this point, a gradual and partial opening of the economy is to be expected, according to our US contacts, why we have assumed that the purchases hereafter will slow to $120 bn per month which is double the pre-corona POMO pace. This will take the SOMA account to $6.8 tn ultimo 2020.On the credit facilities, we anticipate that not only the already $2.3 tn announced amount of lending will enter the balance sheet, but also the remaining funds allocated from the CARES act. Assuming a 10:1 leverage ratio, this sums up to $4.5 tn. Hence, these will (hopefully) be paid back. Overall, we therefore expect the balance sheet to bein the ballpark of $11 tn ultimo 2020.

As only $195 bn out of the $454 bn emergency backstop lending have been used by the Fed, this opens the door for some speculation: Could the rest of the firepower be used for something else than in the credit markets? Perhaps going Japanese style and buying equities? Or even purchasing commodities? You may think it is far-fetched, but Powell actually hinted at it in a Q&A session. When he was asked directly about it, he said that “we won’t hesitate to move into other (security) areas”. Buying commodities is something which we have argued would make sense theoretically as it would improve USD liquidity and increase inflation expectations (and of course help the oil market, you’re welcome Trump). What argues against it is partly the technical/logistical mess, partly the ethics behind the Fed underpinning the oil market. The same arguments can to a large extent be used for buying stocks.

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