On March 3rd, I wrote here on the blog:
“My advice is that if you are “a freshcomer”, do not enter the stock market now, even if you may feel that you have missed the opportunity of the lifetime. “
I still insist theat in these days, the risk-return duo remains only suitable for short-term traders. Since then, stock markets have risen a lot, some stocks are well above their pre-epidemic historical records, but the indexes have also rebounded quickly, about the reasons for this I wrote in my previous posts.
Just to sum up:
- unimaginable money printing, persistently zero interest rates, which raise target prices in models ceteris paribus,
- continuation of TINA (there is no alternative) and FOMO (fear of missing out), but in a multiplied version,
- we are addicted to the price appreciation as to a drug, that’s what we programmed into HFT (high frequency trading) and AI (artificial intelligence) machines, which is what deep mind technologies have learned as well,
- we take human losses, we open up and we may be lucky by autumn,
- we’re going to have terrible macro data down our throats with a few big falls from which we can come back nicely again.
In the coming weeks and months, there may still be time to subtract the consequences of this.
I think those who were mortally terrified in March that a stock market’s wave of sales would ruin their achievements so far, would take their savings or they were about to go bankrupt:
they’ve just been given a second, rare opportunity
I don’t see the future, the epidemic and recovery could take markets in many directions in the coming months. I don’t even offer investment or investment advice, I never did that.
But let’s focus on ourselves, on our own psychological limitations. Do not forget despite the rising prices, if in mid-March it was revealed that your portfolio is not crisis-proof or too risky for your age or wealth situation. Now is the time to rearrange without any major losses.
Instead of self-deceiving, think about where to take it back and how to change your investments. You can’t make a living from floating profits, you can’t plan a pension on unrealized gains.