I wrote the following summary for the World Economy on Monday 30 March, and these articles are always published here with a one-day delay. Everyone's focused on technical levels 370-375 by now. The exponential phase of currency crises is causing huge swings, even within days. Rand and South African bonds are only one of the first dominoes right now, the question is whether panic or firefighters will be faster.
The notable thing about the crown virus in a panic reaction is that the markets began to behave in the old days, so that those who had lived through previous stock market crashes could easily interpret the signals. CNN Money's fear-greed index shows an extreme reaction, and based on that, we can hope to get past the most difficult phase. None of this means that the stock market will stop falling, but if the first good news comes and we enter the third stage, then there will be a sudden rebound.
Volatility is part of the markets. The fact is that no one knows for sure whether the stock market will soon enter a bear market, how long that bear market will last. Take a look on the S&P500 chart and try to find the previous crises, in a long-run they look like a tiny downturn. They were as painful as the current one.
Financial planning: in previous posts, we reminded that most of the population still expects the state pension scheme and does not have an emergency plan. Then we promised a long life, and we decided that there would be something to live acceptablely for a long time. Then, through two life-smelling examples, we began to recognize […]